LIVE·SANTOS $26.1M demurrage accruing·77 waiting · median 46h·congestion $3.44/t·8.2Mt cargo at anchor·PARANAGUÁ $10.8M·19 ports · 2026-07-06 18:28 UTC
// METHODOLOGY

How the numbers are made.

No black box. Here's the data, the models, and the gate every product has to pass before it reaches you.

The data

149M raw AIS positions (2021→now) → 335K cleaned berth calls → 19K ground-truth wait labels verified against raw trajectories. Live queue state from official port-authority feeds across 18 ports. 45M COMEX customs records (2013→now) for trade flows. Hourly weather (ERA5 back to 2021) for congestion. Independent cross-checks from IMF PortWatch.

The models

Gradient-boosted quantile models (P10/P50/P90) for berth wait; calibrated classifiers for demurrage risk; horizon models for congestion. Always time-based train/test splits — never random for time-series. Commercial vessels only (>100m, proper cargo types).

The falsification gate

Every product must beat a naïve baseline on held-out data or it does not ship. We killed numbered FIFO queue positions (worse than a coin flip at Santos) and multiport ML congestion where it lost to persistence. What survives is on the accuracy page, recomputed monthly.